How Indian Farmers’ Switch from Rice to Millet Can Boost Profit

The rising global population has put immense pressure on food security, necessitating a boost in agricultural production. Over the past 50 years, crop yields across the world have declined by one-tenth due to extreme weather events such as droughts and heat waves.

The increasing similarity in the types of crops grown worldwide has further made the food supply vulnerable to climatic and market disruptions. With climate change expected to get worse in South Asia, achieving sustainable agriculture poses a significant challenge.

While previous research has shown how changes in climate affect crop yields, little is known about the impact of harvested areas on production stability (minimal fluctuations in agricultural output). Professor Ashwini Chhatre, along with a team of researchers, examined the issue in the context of the production of kharif cereal crops (sown during monsoon) in India. The study highlights the importance of cropping patterns and harvested area allocation to minimise losses caused by climate change.

Here are five questions that uncover the study’s findings and their broader implications:

Why should farmers consider growing less rice during monsoon? 

While rice is a high-yield crop that dominates monsoon cereal farming in India, it is highly sensitive to weather changes. In contrast, alternate cereal crops like millet, maize, and sorghum have shown greater resilience to climate stress.

The study shows that farmers can reduce climate-related production losses and increase their incomes by shifting land from rice cultivation to alternative grains, highlighting the importance of harvested area for production stability. 

Why focus on harvested area rather than yield? 

While previous research has focused on how climate impacts crop yields, recent studies show that changes in harvested area due to climate variability considerably affect crop production. For example, a study in central India found that annual variations in winter crop cover were associated with shifts in daytime temperatures.

Farmers often decide how much land to plant crops on based on weather conditions at the start of the growing season. However, extreme weather conditions after sowing can also damage crops, reducing the total area that is ultimately harvested. Additionally, price fluctuations influence what and how much a farmer chooses to grow.